Prediction of Patterns Associated with Onchocerciasis Recrudescence


Onchocerciasis control relies on use of mass treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin. Despite many years of community treatment, the disease recently has started to re-appear in areas including that had mass drug treatment in combination with vector control using larvicide application. Onchocerciasis is one of diseases with massive data. Available community prevalence and microfilaria community data indicates differing patterns that might influence the predictive performance of available models. With the advances in computing and simulation tools, this data alone can be used to help understand more about the disease without worrying about the underlying biological process. Available Onchocerciasis transmission models are based on theoretical assumptions and hypothetical model parameters. Biology is a fast growing field and there are a lot of available data for use in this modeling approach; data fitting models. The idea for this model is to estimate community-based minimum thresholds for prevalence and/or CMfL that we can use to predict patterns associated with Onchocerciasis elimination given some community treatment data. The model output with provide new operational thresholds to guide Onchocerciasis control teams to make decisions on where and when to stop ivermectin treatment with successful disease control/elimination.